1. review of the recent tpu market
since september 8 this year, the mainstream price trend of tpu in the south china market has fluctuated within a narrow range. from 18,000 yuan/ton at the beginning, it slowly fell to 16,300 yuan/ton at the end of september. at this time, the tpu industry chain as a whole continued to be in a nturn, and the upstream main raw materials and nstream demand in various fields were in a weak consolidation situation.
after entering october, especially after the national day of china, the demand has picked up, and the upstream and nstream markets have simultaneously entered the state of resumption of work and production. the tpu industry the operating rate of each main body in the chain has rebounded significantly month-on-month, and the prices of major products have also begun to stabilize and rise. during this period, the mainstream price of tpu in the south china market rose from more than 1,600 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton, and then went sideways for two weeks. it was not until november 8 that the price dropped again, and closed at the current 17,200 yuan/ton.
in general, the recent tpu market situation is generally tepid, and there is no obvious marginal change in the industry. lighter. the main reasons are as follows point:
1, the energy crisis caused by the russian-ukrainian war, and the interest rate hikes in major countries caused by global inflation did not show obvious reversals, and the resulting stagnation expectations are getting stronger. first of all, although the crude oil price peaked in june this year and has now dropped to the 80-90 central position, the price is still at a relatively high level, and further reductions in oil prices are needed to curb inflation. secondly, the latest gdp data of the united states does not show signs of its economic recession, its unemployment rate remains at a low position, and the rigidity of employee wages is still obvious. under such circumstances, the united states will still not slow n the pace of raising interest rates. according to the latest dot plot of the federal reserve, the interest rate of us bonds may break through 5.5%. this will seriously restrain the pace of world economic growth. recently, major countries have successively lowered their economic growth expectations for next year. these have a relatively negative impact on tpu demand expectations next year.
2, due to the repeated epidemics in china and the impact of the dynamic zeroing policy, we are facing a complicated and changing unfavorable situation. on the one hand, due to the delay in effective control of the new crown epidemic, more serious epidemics have broken out in many provinces and cities one after another, making normal economic life in society always delayed. among them, in terms of production, the normal production order was interrupted, and the operating rate and production efficiency declined; in terms of logistics and transportation, the travel time and transportation costs increased, which affected the normal circulation of people; in terms of demand, especially consumption in personal travel scenarios was seriously affected. influenced by the impact, the operating pressure of related enterprises has increased sharply, and the debt of enterprises has increased sharply.
3, looking back at the recent tpu upstream, the main raw materials have experienced a wave of weak rebound. among them, the pure mdi in east china rebounded from 18,000 yuan/ton in early september to 21,300 yuan/ton in mid-october, and immediately fell back to the low level of 18,800 yuan/ton. adipic acid in east china rebounded from around 9,000 yuan/ton in early september to around 11,000 yuan/ton in october, but it did not stand still for long.after that, it fell all the way, and the current price came to around 9900 yuan. the bdo price in east china rebounded by 40% in less than 2 weeks from around 10,000 yuan/ton in early september, reaching 14,000 yuan/ton, and then began to drop rapidly to 11,500 yuan/ton at the end of october. regardless of the overall macro background, the weak rebound of raw materials is mainly caused by seasonal factors, but in the case of a bad environment, this rebound is very limited in terms of strength and sustainability, and the trading atmosphere in various markets is relatively light , the desire of all parties to raise prices is high, but the ability is low.
in the face of the above situation, the upstream and nstream of the tpu industry chain showed a nward cycle compared with the same period last year, and the prices of all links in the industry chain were relatively compared with the same period last year, there was a certain decline. at the same time, with the continuous release of tpu production capacity, the pressure of the oversupply is more obvious at a certain point in time, forming further pressure on the price of tpu.
second, tpu outlook for the next month
1, from the perspective of tpu demand, the production peak season of nstream manufacturers has passed, and when the end of the year comes, there will be many holidays, and the operating rate is expected to be difficult to improve significantly. therefore, the marginal strength of the demand side for tpu price support has weakened. in particular, the united states will raise interest rates once again at the end of the year. it is expected that 50 bp will be expected. it is expected that the nstream market will also have weak expectations for upstream commodities.
2, from the perspective of tpu supply, manufacturers will be more cautious in purchasing when the overall market expectation is low, especially when upstream raw material prices are expected to further weaken. most of them are based on order purchases, and it is not ruled out that the price of tpu will continue to change synchronously with the decline of upstream raw materials. at present, crude oil is still at a relatively high level, with little room for upside, but relatively large room for nside, but the rhythm of the nturn is difficult to grasp. it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in nstream demand, especially whether the domestic epidemic policy has changed.
