as a “tank” player in the field of polyurethane raw materials, the recent mdi market trend cannot hide its weakness.
according to the latest domestic market price, as of november 7, the mainstream market price of polymeric mdi dropped to 13,800-14,100 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of aniline, the main upstream raw material of mdi, was 15,060 yuan/ton in the east china market on that day. the price of polymeric mdi and its main raw material appeared – upside n!
looking back from 2014 to the present, the price trend of domestic polymeric mdi and aniline can be seen in the figure below, which is also rare in history.
recent aggregated mdi review
in the last ten days of last month, the price of domestic polymeric mdi market accelerated nward. in the first week of november, the market weakness continued and the price continued to drop. the market price on november 7 had reached the low of 13,800-14,100 yuan/ton in late august.
judging from the overall trend from the beginning of this year to the current one, the price of domestic aggregated mdi fluctuates nward. the main reason is that the overall performance of the demand side of the terminal nstream industry is weak. the main reason supporting the low price rebound of polymeric mdi in late august is mainly from the chain improvement and increase in the demand of the main nstream industries of polymeric mdi at that time, such as ice cold and sheet metal.
at present, the price of polymeric mdi has been bottomed out again, and it has been inverted with the price of raw material aniline. the industry is generally concerned: whether the “weak and hard to hide” polymeric mdi market can rebound from a low level again?
raw material end (aniline):
let’s first look at the raw material side, the price of aniline. as mentioned above, as of november 7, the mainstream price of aniline in east china market was around 15,060 yuan/ton. the rise in the price of aniline is mainly due to the strong support of supply shrinkage and stocking demand in october, and the monthly increase in october reached about 18%.
in mid-to-early october, the aniline plants of yantai and shanxi tianji were shut n for maintenance as planned, and the supply of aniline dropped sharply, driving up the price of aniline. in late october, shandong jinling and dongying huatai’s aniline plants were overhauled as scheduled, and jiangsu fuqiang’s overhaul plan may be implemented. nstream factories changed their minds and entered the site to purchase and stock up. from the end of october to the present, the price of aniline is at a high level.
supplier (mdi manufacturer):
in terms of equipment maintenance this month, the yantai plant is undergoing full-month maintenance in november, and the production equipment of the two factories in shanghai will also be undergoing maintenance from the middle of this month. therefore, the overall operating rate of domestic mdi manufacturers in november has dropped by 10% compared to october. around, and the overall operating rate of the whole month is 6-70% low. in terms of factory prices, a factory in shanghai lowered the distribution price to 14,000 yuan/ton this week. this news has added a layer of sadness to the market that has continued to “find the bottom at a low level”.
demand side (nstream of mdi):
the demand for raw materials from traditional nstream industries such as cold and sheet metal is improving and increasing month-on-month during the period from august to october; however, the industry’s expectations for seasonal weakening from thermal insulation construction projects are superimposed on the impact of last weekend’s news about the aggravation of the epidemic situation in many places in the short term, the distribution market may still face the difficult situation of difficult shipments.
summary:
recently, the price of aniline has risen and operated at a high level, giving the price of polymeric mdi a strong cost-end support. this month, the overall operating rate of domestic mdi manufacturers has dropped significantly month-on-month, and the inventory on the supply side is gradually being released. on the demand side, although there are not many expectations for the improvement of nstream demand in the short term, the year-on-year weakening of nstream demand since this year has already been reflected in the price trend of aggregated mdi over the past few months. therefore, aggregated there is not much room for mdi to go n again at a low level.
