grey rhino incident
the gray rhinoceros is bulky and slow to respond. you can see it in the distance, but you don’t care. once it runs towards you, it will definitely let you you were caught off guard and were thrown to the ground. it is not mysterious, but more dangerous. the gray rhino incident refers to an obvious, high-probability event that has been ignored many times and may eventually lead to a major crisis. it is often not taken seriously before fermentation, so that the best time to deal with or control risks is missed, which may lead to extremely serious consequences in the end.
“grey rhinoceros” is running wild
since the russian-ukrainian conflict broke out in february this year, europenatural gassupply is in crisis and natural gas prices have risen sharply. recently, europenatural gasthe crisis has intensified further. on september 2 local time, gazprom announced that due to the discovery of multiple equipment failures, the “beixi no. 1” pipeline will completely stop gas supply indefinitely until the failure is eliminated. the current situation is like a gray rhino running towards the industry and people’s livelihood in europe. especially for relatively high energy-consuming industries such as chemical industry, energy, and papermaking, the impact and impact will be more direct. the market is increasingly worried and aroused concern about the shortage of natural gas supply in europe this autumn and winter.
the price of mdi products in europe is expected to increase
europe is the second largest chemical production base in the world after china. it is also a similar pattern for mdi products. europe’s mdi production capacity is 2.61 million tons/year (accounting for 27% of the global total), second only to china’s 3.89 million tons/year.
european mdi installations are mainly distributed in germany, belgium, netherlands, spain and portugal. judging from the current european natural gas supply situation, germany is more affected (mdi production capacity in germany accounts for 30% of the total production capacity in europe). both and have mdi installations in germany. in the middle of last month, affected by rising natural gas and other energy price fluctuations, announced that starting from september 1, the price of its mdi, polyether and composite products in the european market will increase by 200 euros/ton (or equivalent currency).
recently, according to feedback from european local operators , european mdi mainstream manufacturers may increase the price of mdi products in october.
domestic polymeric mdi under the background of “european style” gray rhinoceros
since the beginning of september, the domestic polymeric mdi market has experienced two months of weakness and nturn.�, the low rebounded. the market sentiment has warmed up and strengthened, and the price has been pushed up for several days. as of september 8, the quotation in the domestic mainstream market was 15,500-15,800 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 1,300-1,500 yuan/ton compared with the quotation in the same period last week.
on the one hand, in early september, gazprom released the news that “the beixi no. 1 pipeline will completely stop gas supply indefinitely”, and the continuous fermentation of this situation and hot spots push up, the industry may have uncertainty about the stability of the local mdi supply in europe in the next fourth quarter, and domestic manufacturers may increase their expectations for european export volume.
on the other hand, in the fourth quarter, some domestic mdi devices will be shut n for maintenance one after another, and the total production capacity involved will reach 2.1 million tons per year, accounting for about the total production capacity of the country. 54%. if the japanese plant that is already shutting n for maintenance (early september to the end of october) and the south korean plant with a maintenance plan are added, the asian production capacity that will enter maintenance in the fourth quarter will reach 2.55 million tons per year.
in addition, from the perspective of domestic demand, although the industry’s expectations for this year’s domestic “golden september and silver october” demand seasons are not as good as in previous years, compared with the past 7- the market in august may still be expected to improve month-on-month.
to sum up the factors above, the aggregated mdi market has recently come out of the low and weakened, and turned stronger and went up.
