after the spring festival in 2019, the bdo factory has been facing cost pressure, and the market price has dropped from 9150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 8,400 yuan / ton, and with the rising prices of raw material calcium carbide and methanol, the profit margin of manufacturers has been severely compressed, and there are different opinions on the future market news.
it can be seen from the statistics of tiantian chemical network that the bdo market has shown a nward trend in the past year. from 11,900 yuan/ton in 2018 to the current 8,400 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,500 yuan/ton; while the raw material calcium carbide and methanol markets are generally at a high level, bdo plays a greater role in cost support.
as of now, profitability of bdo factories has been severely hampered. from the perspective of the current market supply side, the factory maintenance plan for march and april is being implemented one after another, and the main purpose is to digest the previous inventory for the time being. some factories mainly use bdo for their own use, which does not improve the current supply situation.
poor performance of nstream demand is the main influencing factor
the nstream ptmeg market experienced a surge in march, and the terminal nstream spandex and elastomer fields are also rising accordingly. however, the demand of end customers is limited, and the price increase has no obvious effect on stimulating market consumption. customers are resistant to high-end quotations.
the original device in the nstream pbt market continues to operate and is stable. however, the recent news of new pbt devices being put into production has come and gone: xinjiang lanshan tunhe, kanghui and xingsheng have all heard of the release of new pbt production capacity. among them, it is expected that lanshan tunhe’s new device commissioning plan will have a greater impact on the market, and its own bdo device cannot meet the nstream ptmeg and pbt need to outsource bdo. due to the low start of end users, whether the new pbt equipment can be put into production normally depends on the market demand.
under the news of speculation and rising, the actual demand side has become the key to look at the market outlook. judging from the consumption of intermediate products, the performance of nstream demand is not optimistic. at present, the bdo market is mainly based on digesting inventory, and the recent factory maintenance plan has not yet played a significant positive role in market supply. up to now, the timing of bdo market bottoming out depends on whether the nstream demand side improves significantly.
